If one critically examines the unfolding Umaru Yar’Adua’s presidency, there is a temptation to say that it is a replication of President Shehu Shagari’s presidency of the late 1970s and early 1980s.  In other words, it is possible to predict prophetically the future direction of this government by examining Shagari’s government because both are eerily similar in their creation, nature and style.  The similarity of the two governments does not seem to be a mere coincident but a product of calculated political design engineered by Chief/Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo and a clique of oligarchic individuals who have captured, dominated and monopolized the king making role in Nigeria. 

Shagarinization, for purpose of this write-up, refers to a government or a regime headed Umaru Yar’Adua’s by a likable and personable individual that seems aimless, unfocused, corrupt, powerless, and ineffective. . Shagari’s regime of 1979-1983 came very close to characterizing the qualities described above, hence, Shagarinization.

The Similarity of the Governments of Alhaji Shehu Shagari and Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua

The following provide a catalog of reasons why the two governments are eerily similar and almost clones of the same thing:

1.At the time President Shagari was selected to become the presidential flag-bearer of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Alhaji Shagari was only interested in running for office as a senator, not as a president.  He was literally dragged from the senatorial candidacy to become the presidential candidate of the NPN.  Without any preparation to serve as a president, he became the president of Nigeria.  Similarly, at the time President Yar’Adua was selected to become the top presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party of Nigeria (PDP), he was merely running for office as a gubernatorial candidate.  He was not prepared to serve as a president since his focus was to become a governor in his state.  Suddenly, he became the president of Nigeria, just like Shagari.

2.In both circumstances, the same person was the leader of Nigeria at the time.  Gen. Obasanjo was the military leader of Nigeria when Shagari took over power and served as the president in the Second Republic.  President Obasanjo was the president of Nigeria when Yar’Adua took over the presidency.  This means that Chief/Gen. Obasanjo most likely instigated the process to hand over power to Shagari and Yar’Adua.

3.Both Shagari and Yar ‘Adua were considered to be political juniors in the scheme of Nigerian politics at the time they were chosen to become the flagbearers of their political parties and not well known nationally.  Thus, in both cases, Chief/Gen. Obasanjo ignored the political seniors and those who had openly expressed a desire for the top job in the country and selected individuals who did not have any national agenda to lead the country.

4.Since both were political juniors at the time they were selected, they were immediately dominated by the members of the inner circles of their political parties.  It is a fact that President Shagari was dominated by the seniors in the NPN, hence, could not accomplish much for the country.  He was always swimming against the political currents of the seniors in the NPN.  They dominated him from the beginning to the end of his regime.  President Yar’ Adua is a political junior in the PDP.  He is being dominated by the party bosses of the PDP.  His government is increasingly dancing to the tune of the members of the inner circle of the PDP.  As a result, he is losing control, just like Shagari.

5.During Shagari’s regime, Dr. Umaru Dikko was the superstar.  He invented the trickery that sustained the NPN.  He was responsible for inventing rice as a carrot to compel Nigerians to support the NPN.  He was alleged to have been the greatest pilferer of public funds during the reign of Shagari.  Today, it appears that Dikko’s role is being played by the Attorney General, Mr. Michael Aondokaa, who seems to behave and act like the Attorney General of the PDP and the legal counsel of alleged embezzlers rather than the Attorney General of Nigeria.  Like Dr. Umaru Dikko, the Attorney General seems to be above the law and assumes that he can interpret the law in such a way as to protect the PDP and financiers of the PDP machine.

6.President Shagari was very personable, humble, and simple.  He did not portray any psychological sign of hunger for power.  He was never personally accused of corruption.  President Yar’Adua too is very personable, humble in appearance and simple in nature.  He does not seem to portray any signs of hunger for power.  While these public qualities are likable, they can be very deceiving.  As a result, Nigerians did not know who was Shagari and what was he about.  Similarly, Nigerians are beginning to question who is Yar’Adua and what he intends to do to move Nigeria forward, apart from posturing to be a personable leader.  Let the true Yar’Adua show up   

7.Both are products of a spoilt political system.  However, Shagari’s presidency had a degree of legitimacy which is missing in Yar’Adua’s presidency due to the manner in which the PDP rigged the elections.  The elections during Shagari time were more genuine than the elections of April 2003 and 2007.  In short, there were no elections in 2003 and 2007.  The PDP used its enormous power to impose its chosen candidates upon the Nigerian people.  Although, Shagari won through a mathematical formula that gave him the majority of the votes, nevertheless, the elections were fairer during his time than what has taken place since Chief/Gen. Obasanjo and the PDP emerged to dominate Nigerian civilian politics.

8.Due to the fact that Shagari did not have any pronounceable agenda for Nigeria since he was only trying to serve as a state senator, his government was hijacked by the plutocrats and he was rendered aimless and insignificant.  Increasingly, PDP plutocrats seem to be taking over the government of Yar’Adua, thereby, turning him into a directionless figurehead of Nigeria

9. Like Shagari’s presidency, President Yar’Adua has not delivered any policy or program or action that is directed at the Nigerian people, apart from promises being made.  Although, it is unfair to compare President Shagari who served for more than four years (1979-1983) with Yar’Adua who has only served for eight months, the process of governance seems to be the same, leading to the implication that Yar’Adua could end up like Shagari if he does not act decisively to deal with the country’s problems.  It should be recalled that Chief/Gen. Obasanjo too started very slowly after making promises upon promises and eventually ended up without delivering any tangible service to the Nigerian people from 1999 to 2007.  In fact, like Shagari, one could say that former President Obasanjo did not accomplish any tangible activity during a reign of eight years.  If President Yar’Adua does not start to deliver tangible developmental goods and services to the Nigerian masses very early in his presidency, his term of office will expire before he realizes that he has not accomplish anything

10.  He appointed a number of inner circle members of the PDP to high-level government positions, knowing full well that they were involved in using the PDP to turn Nigeria into a non-democratic, corruption-ridden and gangland-like state.  He knew that many of them were corrupt and unpatriotic Nigerians, yet, he appointed them in order to please the PDP which concocted the political trickery to put him in power. .

11.  He continues to allow the spoilt oil block distribution system to manifest where a selected group of Nigerians are allowed to accumulate wealth for doing nothing  These Nigerians are given oil blocks and  the oil blocks are then sold to the multinational companies at high prices, thereby, making the oil block owners instant millionaires.

12.  The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) continues to serve as a piggy bank for those highly connected Nigerians.  It is amazing that no official from the NNPC has ever been sent to prison for engaging in financial fraud.  The NNPC continues to be a profusely leaking basket that serves as a Santa Claus for certain individuals in the country.  The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) has never developed any technology apart from serving as a financial reservoir for the former president and his cronies.  There is no difference between the PTDF and the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF).  They are instruments for transferring  oil wealth  from the state to individuals.  The selected individuals become excessively wealthy while the majority of Nigerians become excessively poorer.

13.  President Yar’Adua seems to flow into every direction, based upon who is putting political pressure on him.  He seems to say the right things and then act immediately to contradict them whenever inner circle members of the PDP visit him in Aso Rock.

14.  His foreign policy so far seems to be characterized by inactivity.  Due to the mix signals that he sends, even the British are saying that Nigeria is no longer interested in fighting corruption.  He has not done anything to correct the shame following the incapability of Nigeria to put his cultural affairs center in Bahia Brazil in order.  Of all the African countries that were given buildings to showcase their cultures, only Nigeria has been unable to do so.  The Brazilian government is threatening to take back the building and put it to other use.  After Nigeria, Brazil has the second largest black population in the world.  Afro-Brazilians strongly promote African religious culture, yet, Nigeria cannot even organize a cultural center in that country.  Officials responsible for activating the cultural center maintain that they do not have money to do so.  The Ministry of External Affairs owes Nigerians and Afro-Brazilians an explanation.

15.  He has not taken any action that would directly benefit the Nigerian masses.  In other words, for the moment, it seems that the Nigerian masses do not matter politically.  The masses must wait, pray and hope that the president will remember their needs.  Their needs include affordable health care, reliable electricity, conducive and affordable public transportation system, affordable public housing, productive educational system, employment etc.

As can be seen, President Yar’Adua is dancing like President Shagari.  After promising to fight corruption, he is bending backwards and allowing the former governors and party leaders of the PDP to shipwreck the efforts of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission by tactically removing the only individual most Nigerians have come to trust, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu.  

16.  It was obvious that President Shagari’s regime was aimless and corrupt.  Eventually, the government was overthrown by Lt. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari in 1983.  To instill discipline, Buhari instituted the War Against Indiscipline (WAI).  The WAI was considered too draconian by some Nigerians, thereby, leading to accusations of dictatorial tendencies.  Gen. Buhari was sneakily overthrown by a smiling general known as Ibrahim Babangida.  Gen. Babangida perfected the art of political trickery (Maradonnanism) and corruption.  As can be seen, the greatest threat to President Yar-‘Adua comes from Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and  Ret. Gen. Buhari.  This time the effort to remove a sitting president is being done through the legal process.  Shagari was removed forcefully through the barrel of a gun.

17.  The issue of gas flaring and environmental destruction in the Niger Delta has never been taken seriously, hence, Nigeria always cooperate with the oil companies to extend the deadline for stopping gas flaring.  It appears that like Shagari and other Nigerian leaders, President Yar’Adua will also bend backwards and allow the deadline for stopping gas flaring to be extended.  The fact that farming and fishing in the Niger Delta have been devastated by oil and gas exploration is not important to the national political leadership.  This time, the oil companies want the deadline to be extended to 2010.  When 2010 comes, the companies will lobby again for extension.  They know that as far as Nigerian leaders are corrupt, they would get their way by saying that if they are forced to comply with the deadline, then oil production will be drastically reduced. 

Why Chief/Gen. Obasanjo Always Select Political Juniors to Replace Him?

At this moment, it is necessary to ask why Chief/Gen. Obasanjo always seems to pick political underlings as his successors.  It is also necessary to ask why he repeatedly  selected individuals who were not prepared for the top job in the country to become presidents?  The following is an attempt to identify the reasons given by Nigerians to explain Obasanjo’s proclivity toward selecting political juniors to succeed him:

1.Some Nigerians believe that Chief/Gen. Obasanjo always prefer to hand over power to individuals who have less political influence so that he can be able to control and dominate them after he leaves office.

2.Some believes that Chief/Obasanjo chooses to hand over power to individuals who have less political clout in the country so that they would not be able to summon enough courage to investigate and possibly charge him for various crimes after he is no longer in power.  It should be noted that some Nigerians are convinced that the culture of large scale embezzlement of public funds actually began during the regime of Gen. Obasanjo and not that of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida.  It should be recalled that while Gen. Obsanjo was in power, preferably, around 1977-78, a wild rumor circulated that the late President/Gen. Idi Amin of Uganda captured a plane which landed in Kampala, the capital of his country.  According to the story, the plane was said to have departed from Nigeria with large sums of unexplainable money.  According to the rumor, it was stated that the money was meant to be distributed to liberation fighters in Rhodesia, Angola and South Africa. The rumor ended with an allegation that Idi Amin confiscated the money. The story circulated far and wide but it died without further clarification. 

In recent times, rumors have been circulating that former President Obasanjo has been going around pleading with the new governors not to carry out any action that could jeopardize his business interests in their states.  In particular, Rivers State is repeatedly mentioned as an area where his business interests are threatened.  This is a mere rumor, however, it is a fact that Chief/Gen. Obasanjo invented and created the Obasanjo Holding Companies (OHC) while he was in power.  Some Nigerians point to the resemblance between Obasanjo Holding Companies (OHC) and the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) and wonder whether the change of the name of NEPA to PHCN was done for the convenient of the former president. Some Nigerians are wondering why the former president was so eager to privatize national corporations.  In addition, they wonder why he allowed only a very few friends of his to own most of the privatized government properties.  They also wonder whether the few friends who gained from the privatization exercise were members of OHC.

It could be said that under President Obasanjo’s leadership of Nigeria between 1999 and May 2007, the scale of corruption and political assassinations escalated uncontrollably, even though he announced publicly to fight a war against corruption.  Before Chief/Gen Obasanjo took over the presidency in May 29, 1999, Generals Babangida and Sani Abacha’s regimes were noted for being the most corrupt in Nigeria.  Today, some Nigerians would say that Obasanjo’s reign has beaten the records of the two former generals, in terms of corruption.

3.  Some Nigerians theorize that Chief/Gen. Obasanjo always wants to open political doors to political underlings so that the country can go in the right direction.  Consequently, it was necessary to put somebody like Shagari in power.  Similarly, it is necessary to put someone like Yar’Adua in power.  In this regard, Nigerians who hold this perspective believe that President Obasanjo helped to put President Yar ‘Adua and Vice President Goodluck Jonathan in power, thereby, for the first time, allowing a member of a minority group to ascend the corridors of national power, apart from Gen. Yakubu Gowon.  Furthermore, those who hold this view believe that President Obasanjo  must be congratulated for appointing General Alexander Ogomudia and Gen. Awoye Azazi as heads of the Nigerian Army and Chiefs of Defense Staff respectively. They also insist that Chief/Gen. Obasanjo must be congratulated for creating the EFCC and making the anti-corruption war possible.

4. Some Nigerians believe that Chief/Gen. Obasanjo is a party loyalist and prefers to hand over the mantle of leadership of the country to individuals who are beholden to the political party so that they can reinforce the capability of the party to win elections against the opposition.  In deed, Shagari was beholden to the NPN and the clique that controlled the party from behind the scenes.  As a result, he decided to run for reelection rather than hand over the presidential candidacy to Vice President Alex Ekwueme after  the NPN had made a decision to rotate the presidential slot among the political zones of the party.

To Avoid Shagarinization

Actions needed to be taken by President Yar’Adua in order to avoid Shagarinization:

1.       Become more decisive and act like the leader of Nigeria and not as the caretaker of the PDP.

2.      Make the war on corruption the number one goal and objective.  Corruption affects the entire lifeblood of the country, thereby, truncating its development.  Corruption perpetuates the violation of the Constitution and the laws by those in power.  It enables national and states political leaders to be unaccountable, unresponsive, irresponsible, and  nontransparent.  It is not possible to move the country forward in a progressive manner if corruption is not drastically reduced.  

To fight corruption, the law must be allowed to take its course.  Judges must be allowed to make legal decisions based upon the merits of the law.

3.       He must work with the National Assembly to get rid of the immunity clause.  Why should the Nigerian population at large be held accountable to the laws of the country while the rulers are exempted from the tentacles of the laws of the land?.  The law should apply equally to all Nigerians.  The immunity clause encourages thievery.  .It is not surprising that the former governors are behaving like common thieves and searching for every means possible to avoid being invited by the EFCC to explain what they did while they were in power.

4.      He must distant himself from former President Obasanjo and members of the inner circle of the PDP if he does not want to be aimless and ineffective.

5.      He should stop the PDP practice of forcing governors, especially those of the oil-producing states to sponsor PDP political activities.  The rumors are all over the place that Chief James Ibori, the former governor of Delta State was responsible for financing his presidential candidacy.  As a result, some Nigerians believe that President Yar’Adua has been lukewarm in allowing the EFCC to carry out massive investigation of the former governor of Delta State.  Is it a coincident that Mallam Ribadu was removed as the head of the EFCC exactly at the time in which Chief Ibori was arrested by the EFCC?  Is it also a mere coincident that the Attorney General and the Inspector General of Police have been working so hard to make sure that the EFCC is controlled either through the Attorney General’s Office or the Nigerian Police Force?  Many citizens of the oil-producing region believe that their governors are imposed upon them by the PDP and Abuja power-wielders in order to milk the states of large sums of money.  The citizens of the Niger Delta States further add that portions of the revenue accruing from the Federation Account are recycled back to Abuja through compulsory donations to the PDP and other national activities as a form of payback by the governors who were installed in power.  It should be noted that former governor Joshua Dariye of Plateau State was probably the first to openly allege that he gave money to the PDP from his state allocations.  It is not possible to reduce corruption while governors are forced to donate public funds to carry out private activities of a political party.  The practice of forcing public officials to donate public money to a private political party is illegal and a violation of the financial and developmental rights of the people of Nigeria, especially those in the oil-producing region.

6.       He should pay more attention to the national interest of Nigeria and not that of the PDP.  As stated above,  President Shagari kowtowed to the pressures of some inner circle members of the NPN, hence, refused to hand over the presidential bid of the party to Dr. Alex Ekwueme, his vice president, as the presidential flagbearer of the NPN  during a second presidential election..  By so doing, he fractured the coalition that would have made the NPN a truly national party

7.       The EFCC should be allowed to stand on its own as an independent government agency instead of being forced to become either part of the Nigerian Police Force or the Attorney General’s Office.  So far, it seems that the president is allowing the Attorney General to unduly interfere with the operations of the EFCC.  This sends a mix message indicating that the president is not serious about fighting corruption.  In particular, the tactical coup which led to the sudden departure of Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the head of the EFCC shows that the Attorney General and the Inspector General of the Police are playing politics with the war on corruption.

8.       The Attorney General and the Inspector General of Police should work together to solve the high profile murders that were committed in the country during the administration of Chief Obasanjo.  In particular, the case of former Attorney General Bola Ige must be solved.  They should allow the EFCC to do its work.

9.       He should not extend the deadline for the stoppage of gas flaring.  Gas flaring has been going on since oil was discovered in Oloibiri in 1958.  Instead, he should put pressure on the oil companies to take proactive measures in ensuring the reduction of gas flaring.  The youths in the Niger Delta are watching to see whether the president will kowtow to the interest of the oil companies or act decisively to put an end to the biochemical poisoning of the peoples of the oil-producing region.  The peoples of the region are being subjected to an unbearable condition due to the fact that while they are compelled to inhale the poisonous gases and develop incurable medical conditions, there are no specialized medical facilities in the Niger Delta to treat their ailments. 

10.   He should distribute major national infrastructural developmental activities throughout all the zones of the country.   So far, the impression is created that almost every major infrastructural developmental activity is focused on the North and the Southwest.  For instance, the West African Gas Pipeline project is located in the Southwest.  There is a plan to put a major railway line between Lagos and Kano.  There is plan to rehabilitate Lagos/Ibadan highway.  There is no effort to rehabilitate the Lagos-Benin Highway which is the main artery for transportation to the South-East and the South-South from Lagos.  Nigerian citizens from the South-East and South-South are like traveling gypsies when they want to visit their regions because there is no reliable international flight zone in that part of the country.  The roads in the South-East and the South-South are terribly bad.

11.  Since the legitimacy of his presidency’ is being challenged by the opposition led by Atiku and Buahri, the only way he could gain the sympathy and trust of the people is for him to carry out programs and activities that would directly benefit the masses.  He has to act very quickly in making sure that he is the president of the Nigerian people and not the president of the PDP and the protector of PDP’s financial nests.  Otherwise, he could be removed from office as the courts continue to review the electoral processes of the 2007 elections.  Already, some governors have been relieved of their jobs. 

12.   The political stakes are very high.  Nigerians have patiently waited for too long for a good leader to emerge.  Nigerians pray and hope that President Umaru Yar’Adua will succeeds in leading the country to a better future..  If he fails by becoming powerless, aimless and ineffective, the tragic political drama that has been taking place in Kenya could be a child’s play since in Nigeria, almost every ethnic group has an armed militia.  In the days of President Shagari, there were no armed militias and the level of corruption was not as high as it is today.  Therefore, there is no room for  Shagarinization in contemporary Nigeria because the consequences would be catastrophic.  President Yar’Adua should search his conscience and take a position on whether he wants to be the president of Nigeria or the president of the PDP oligarchy.  So far, the only specialization that Nigeria is noted for is corruption while countries like India and China are building computers, automobiles and other technological devices.