"Many became pessimists by financing optimists."
Charlie Johns.

"ACF is to protect the interests of the North in the overall concept of Nigeria, so remember that. That's yours; protect it, the interest of the North, the former Northern Region,"

Yakubu Gowon, former Head of State during Nigeria's bloody civil war. Presently chairman, Grand Patrons of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF).
Excerpt of speech during the first anniversary of the death of Sunday Awoniyi, former chairman of ACF. April, 2008.

"...Why is anybody expecting the present government to do well? Governance is about vision, mission and deep process of thinking. You just don't wake up on the wrong side of the bed and say you want to be president or governor. Great countries of the world did not achieve greatness because they just stumbled on leadership style..."

Chief Bisi Adegbuyi. Chieftain of the Pro-national Conference Organisation, and senatorial candidate of the Action Congress in the April 2008 elections. Excerpt of interview given in December 2007.

"...As far as the 100 days of (President) Umaru Musa Yar'Adua in office is concerned, what it means to some of us is that the illegality, the lack of legitimacy and acceptance by the Nigeria people have continued. And it is in spite of the diversionary and public deceit involved in the policy statements are essentially superficial. They only scratch the surface of the country and do not go down into the fundamental problems of the country. The fundamental problems of the country are these disabling level of corruption, stealing, waste and lack of legitimacy of government, unemployment, poverty, disease, ignorance, illiteracy and neo-colonialist political structure and heritage. The superficial policies have not dealt with them at all. In fact, what we are seeing is an attempt to even generate politically. For example, the abandonment of the anti-corruption campaign, in particular, by the Code of Conduct Bureau, ICPC and EFCC and the recent call for a return to feudalism in the form of constitutional role for un-elected leaders, in the country..."

Alhaji Balarabe Musa. Excerpt of interview given in 2008

"...At independence, most political leaders were concerned with winning independence. That was their main target, our hope rather. There wasn't any dishonesty in the vision. It was a great vision of what we wanted for Nigeria at independence. We wanted to rule ourselves, even if we misrule ourselves in the process. We just wanted to be independent. We wanted other people to let off our country. When independence came, I believe the leading political figures were unprepared for what freedom meant. And because of that, infighting among the nationalists, among the leaders at that time, set in with the result that the abundant energy that the people, especially their leaders had, was dissipated in bickering and quarrelling, which greatly undermined the success of the vision. We failed to come together to put Nigeria first, to work for Nigeria and to meet the hopes and aspiration of Nigerians and the Africa nation. Looking with hindsight, one could say that the civil war was avoidable. With foresight and strong will, many human disasters, like wars, could be avoided. But somehow, the excesses of war come to pressure or submit to political considerations, rather than human and material considerations. The civil war in Nigeria was most unfortunate. I came to know much about the Nigeria Civil war, its roots, its causes, its mission; how it started, how it was fought and how it was won. I happened to be a government official in Northern Nigeria during the war. I travelled throughout the Biafran enclave as it was won over by the federal troops. I travelled to all the divisions with the Marine Commando, which was in the Southern area. I travelled in the thick of the war, met all the commanders - General Mohammed Shua, and others. Shua was Lt. Col. then, before Bissalla replaced him.
In the 2nd Division, I knew Murtala well. I saw him in action. I knew members of his troops. Under him were Musa Yar'Adua, Col. Jallo, Col. Ibrahim Haruna. When the 2nd Division was reorganised, General Jallo was the commander in Benin and General Haruna was in the front in Onitsha. Onitsha had been conquered and the bridge had been crossed..."

Alhaji Magaji Dambatta, Chairman, Board of Trustees, Arewa Consultative Forum, was one of eight young men who founded the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU). Excerpt of interview, published May 1, 2008.

"...History is a weapon. There is another way to get our compatriots to play along. That is to remind the masses up 'North' of the continued need for 'operation Araba' option championed by Murtala Mohammed. Amazing how much history is contorted and rascals are celebrated as heroes. To think an airport here is named after that fellow after he abused Yoruba hospitality to go hunting-door-to-door! We will have a lot of sign-posting to do changing street names, once this is over. As for looking to our southern borders in the event of self determination. There is a long-running animosity between the Edo and the Ibo, caused by the latter's annexation of the former's land mass into the Biafran republic. A similar spat lingers between the riverine ethnicities and the Ibo due to the latter's annexation of the former's landmass in a bid to reach the Atlantic Ocean. I still do not know how Ojukwu and Company reasoned that annexation of Yoruba land was the route to Sokoto and Kano. But Nowamagbe A. Omoigui made relevant comments on the occupation of the midwest. Hail the 24-hour Republic of Benin! With each coup and counter coup, our compatriots have convinced themselves that the issues relating to 'regionalisation' of military capability can be resolved by relocating all meaningful force or resource control to the north of the Sharia Line and so to neuter the south. Time will tell if this Sudan strategy works with our backs to the seas. Meanwhile, as the tanks are withdrawn upwards, other compatriots diffuse to Eko and declare it the new (cowardly, hmmn) Canaan. The monkey refuses to let to of the cookie jar even though his behind is being beaten with sticks. Is it not doomed when the owner reaches for the machete?..."

Iyaalata. NVS member. excerpt of comment on part 3 of article, April 28, 2008.

"The question still remains, how is the dismemberment going to happen? Definitely, not by way of armed struggle for these reasons: The Biafrans do not want to use their heads to break the proverbial coconut the second time. The Odua people are not interested in going to a war they cannot predict the victorious outcome beforehand. The Niger Deltans are too few to face the rest of the country alone, they have therefore resorted to playing hide and seek game with the Nigerian Armed forces. The North, not interested in being taken unawares have made sure that all the strategic military formations are located in the North. Break up can only happen when all Nigerians come to realize that the big size bequeathed to us is a drag on our progress, to the delight of the people that forced us together in the first instance. We can then come round to a negotiating table and sign the divorce letter. The North, in spite of their diversity have always been managing to speak with one voice when it matters most. The South have always spoken with a cacophony of voices, with each section believing it is better than the other, or that it can go it alone while antagonising the other. The same reason why the North with its limited resources is lording it over the south with its abundant resources. It is Northern soldiers that head the JTF that is rampaging the Niger Delta today. It is a northern soldier that headed the special task force on Ogoni the other time with all the atrocities committed. Yet the South-South always vote the same North (or rig elections in their favour).To those calling for war, it should be realised that regardless of the advantage the north may seem to have now in terms of armoury, they can not be any match for a combined forces of Southern Nigeria. But, will that be? Can that be? If the south cannot agree to speak with one voice on politics, on Cyber discourse, on calling for a National Conference, is it war we will be willing to fight together? Our inability to see eye to eye in the south will only delay the eventuality of Nigeria's disintegration if the glaring injustice inherent in it is not addressed, it will not stop it..."

Mikky Jaga. NVS Villager. Excerpt of comment on part 3 of article. April 29, 2008.

"Your post (Mikky Jaga's) has thrown up many salient points that clearly make the break up of Nigeria desirable for the south. Its no use asking how this would be achieved. A break up could only come thru peace or war and there are precedents in our world. It is wrong to assume that the Igbo would not fight again having been beaten once. No serious people succumb to cowardice in the face of slavery and marginalization. You never stop fighting for your freedom. If it were so, the people of Chechenya would not be fighting Russia today, the Palestinians would not be warring against Israel. But I personally feel that the Igbo have never stopped fighting. MASSOB has been suffering casualties from the Nigerian state. For the people who have been felled by the bullets fired by agents of the ruling cabal, it is exactly like dying in war. If you say the Odua people are afraid of going to war, who are they going to fight against? I doubt if there is any southern group that would take up arms against the Yoruba should they wish to abandon the Nigerian state. If not for anything, their signal to leave Nigeria would herald the much needed demise of the criminal political entity. The point you mentioned about the north not willing to be taken unawares by accumulating arms, helps to puncture whatever reason one has to egg Nigeria on. It clearly demonstrates that the south is under siege. You may have said it innocently but this a slip of the finger. If Nigeria was founded on equity and justice, why would a segment of the country have the need to procure and localize arms as a tool of coercion? This is bringing out the myopia of southerners who believe Nigeria must be one till eternity. Why go into a partnership when you are clearly disadvantaged? Why belong to a country when there is arms build up in another region to exterminate you? There is even a plan to for Nigeria to acquire nuclear technology with the reactor located in the north. This would complete the enslavement of the south.All the points you raised have been addressed at various fora and times. The issue of a loose confederation could have been the solution but what would you do when the stake holders dont even want us to come and sit on a round table. The call for a sovereign national conference have been on for several years but the oppressors would not listen. They would rather sponsor and finance subversive elements in the south to cause division among us.
Lastly it doesn’t really matter if the problems of the present Nigeria spill over into the new republics. People would be much happier being cheated by an indigene. You'd think twice before ****ing your people because you live among them. It is like the case of say Peter Odili who may never live in River State until he passes on. But the advantages would be numerous and a lot of problems would vanish. A situation where soldiers of northern origin loot and rape the Niger Delta people would be no more..."

Overdryv, NVS member. Excerpt of comment on part 3 of article. April 27, 2008.

"...I have no problem with Obasanjo. Obasanjo was not the one who first arrested me. Before Obasanjo came to power, I didn't know him, neither did he know me. My brothers in the North, because of selfish personal interests, told lies about me to Obasanjo and advised him to arrest me. As a result of this, I have no problem with Obasanjo. It is a home matter. They know me and I know them. I suffered all that I went through because I refused to toe their line and opted for true democracy. This was not what they expected. So I had to be taken care of. While some of my people were praying for my welfare while in prison and even making efforts to secure my release, some of these, my brothers, were holding high level consultations with the government of the day to ensure that I never get out of there. But I have left them in the hands of God. My freedom ordained by God. God brings succour especially if you stand on the path of justice. Today, the lie has ended and I am now back home. When it was uttered, that a military man would be made president, I said I did not agree and I would not support such a proposition. General Danjuma came to my house when I was Chief of Army Staff and talked to me about this issue. I told him, even if he is the person, I would not support him. General Aliyu Gusau is still alive. He too did the same and I said the same thing, that I would not support the proposition. It is not that the government did not like the truth. When we wanted to hand over power, even Gusau asking me the question, he was tired. And indeed, we are tired of military rule. Was this not true? So, it was not proper at that time to impose a military man on Nigerians. Now, we have seen the result. This is what I stood up against and I was punished for almost nine years, for standing up for democracy. What we have got in eight years of Obasanjo has taken us 20 years backward. The incumbent President is doing his best probing here and there. If they had heeded my advice, I am sure the difficulty we are passing through, even if we were meant to suffer, it would not have been of this magnitude. But I am glad that since I was put in detention, they were the ones that took the shame. They are now the same people abusing and castigating Obasanjo everywhere. I don't abuse Obasanjo. I have finished my part..."

Former Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Ishaya Bamaiyi.

Excerpt of interview. May 2008.

III. POLITICAL PRAGMATISM.

Do you want to take part in a joint venture where the probability of your heading it is practically equal to zero despite the fact that your contribution to the venture is substantial? Do you want your ethnic group to be part of a country even if the probability of your ethnic group producing the president is practically equal to zero despite the fact that your contribution in terms of human and mineral resources is substantial? Do you want to be a stakeholder in a company that is run by an incompetent president or management? Do you want your ethnic group to be part of a country that is run by incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt leaders right from independence? What if I tell you the following:

1. If 10 presidential elections are held in the next 40 years in Nigeria, a northerner will emerge winner at least in 7.

2. If 5 presidential elections are held in the next 20 years in Nigeria, the probability of a northerner emerging winner in all the 5 is almost equal to 1, i.e. almost 100% guaranteed.

3. The probability of Nigeria electing a competent, uncorrupt and morally upright leader with vision in the nearest future is practically equal to zero?

Unarguably, in order to resolve all the enormous economic and political problems that Nigeria is presently facing, there is the need for a competent leader with vision. Sadly, I regret to say that given the present political structure, it is practically impossible to elect a competent leader capable of providing solutions to the complex problems the country is deeply immersed in.

The development of a country is a team work in which all levels of government must be actively involved. You will surely agree with me that in order for any country to develop, it's of utmost importance that she is represented at all levels by the best of the best among her citizens. The development of a country, in a way, could be likened to giving examinations where it is necessary to have at least a pass in most or all the subjects in order to have an overall pass mark and be promoted to a higher class or gain admission into a higher institution. Effective leadership is about taking and implementing the right economic and political decisions, at least most of the time. Effective leadership starts from a country choosing not just a competent president, but choosing from among the best of the best. The president in turn is expected to form a very strong cabinet of ministers, who must also rank among the best of the best in their respective fields, and assign them with various tasks or projects, the implementation of which will make a significant impact on the lives of the citizens. The ministers in turn are supposed to appoint different professionals, who should also rank among the best, that will work with them to implement various tasks and projects. Thus, the administration of a country is not only a top - down approach but also involves having the best of the best at all levels. It's only in such a setting that success can be guaranteed. In addition, a lot, undoubtedly,  depend on the values, personality and competence of an elected president. His actions or decisions can either weaken or strengthen democratic institutions which are prerequisites for the economic development of a country. His action, inaction and decisions will undoubtedly have either a very serious positive or negative consequence for the economic development of his country. Therefore, if a country, especially a developing country like Nigeria with very weak democracy and democratic institutions, makes the mistake of electing the wrong people for a long period of time as the presidents, the consequence, politically and economically undoubtedly will be grave. If you start building a house with a shaky foundation, sooner or later the house is banned to collapse. Thus, a corrupt, incompetent, visionless and morally bankrupt president will equally appoint corrupt, incompetent, visionless and morally bankrupt ministers. They too in turn will appoint incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt personnel as their assistants. Before you know it, you have incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt bureaucrats at all levels running the country. A country in such a situation, like the house with a shaky foundation, is doomed to fail. No miracle can save her - not even the accidental appointments of a few competent and non corrupt professionals. Their efforts will not be enough to produce the desired result. Their efforts will not be enough to block the numerous big holes that have been inflicted by these army of incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt managers, on the economy of the country

 It's worth noting that Nigeria, since independence, has been ruled by incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt leaders all of whom are from the north and military respectively. In order to turn things around for the better, there is an urgent need for a competent, uncorrupt and morally upright leader with vision. Sadly, based on my forecast, Nigeria can NEVER have such a leader. IT IS A WISH OR DREAM THAT CAN NEVER COME TRUE! For almost 50 years, we live under the illusion that one day, God, in his everlasting mercy, will give Nigeria a real leader who will solve all our problems overnight. If wishes were horses, beggars will definitely ride. Unfortunately, in Africa, we ignore reality and science, and rely instead more on wishful thinking. Science, unlike wishful thinking or prayers, is a more reliable tool or instrument for predicting or forecasting the future. The same God, in his everlasting mercy, has given us science not only to peep into the future, but as well control or influence it. But, it is disheartening to admit that science has taken the back seat in Nigeria, and given way to wishful thinking.

I made the above 3 assertions or predictions for the following reasons:

1. Analysis of statistical fact and  political events in Nigeria.

Statistics is a science that records past events. Statistics is a branch of mathematical science which deals with the collection, classification and use of facts in the form of numbers. Numbers that are, or can be collected or calculated and presented in such a way that they show useful facts. Probability is based on statistical analysis of past events. Probability is related to statistics inasmuch as statistics is used to describe the behaviour of a variable - which determines the frequencies of events, the average and the variance. Probability is used to determine the likelihood that an event or set of events will occur from a universe of possible events or outcomes. Thus, there is a natural relationship between describing the behaviour of a variable and asking the probability that a particular value of the variable will occur. Therefore, based on the results of past events, we can precisely predict or calculate the probability of the occurrence of certain event(s) provided that the variables and/or conditions that led to the past events remain constant or obey a certain function or equation. Health insurance companies rely on statistical records of births and deaths in order to calculate the average longevity or life expectancy in a country. These statistical data are very powerful tools that allow them not only to calculate precisely the probability of a client living up to, or dying before a particular age or within an age range, but working out as well the correct actuarial calculation and insurance premiums.

  Going by statistics, practically all the leaders of Nigeria come from the north. The only Nigerian from the south that ever ruled Nigeria was made the president sole handedly by the north. In addition, all the leaders that has ruled Nigeria since independence, starting from Gowon to Yaradua, are not only incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt, but as well either imposed themselves on us, or were imposed on us by northern kingmakers. For almost 50 years, Nigeria has NEVER had any 'real' leader! For almost 50 years, Nigeria has only had just 2 real civilian regimes! This is a very important and valuable information in our analysis and forecast. The first civilian regime headed by Shehu Shagari, a northerner, ended in catastrophe. Definitely, Obasanjo's reign can not be regarded as a civilian regime. It was an extension of the military regime camouflaged as a civilian regime. Since Obasanjo was sole handedly made the president by the northern calibre, it will be no exaggeration to assert that his regime was also an extension of the northern rule, defacto! It could be compared to when Babangida, alias evil genius, changed his military khaki as a military Head of State overnight for babariga, and opted for the title of president, nevertheless continued to rule as a military dictator. All Obasanjo too did was change his military uniform into agbada. Unfortunately for Nigeria and Nigerians,  the attire was a camouflage. It was only the dress that changed but the person in the agbada never changed. Obasanjo was still the same military officer who never went through any transformation; just like Babangida. He still had the same military mentality in him which is impossible to get rid of. Therefore, it was not surprising that he ruled with brutality and complete disregard for the rule of law like his predecessors.

Gowon, despite the fact that he was very low in rank and not qualified to take the mantle of power after the unsuccessful Nzeogwu coup, nevertheless, was imposed on Nigerians by the northern military junta. Gowon, after almost 10 years in power, was shoved outside by Murtala Muhammad. Another imposition.

Alhaji Shehu Shagari, who was contented being a school teacher was forced by the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) to be the president of Nigeria in 1979. Another imposition. To say that Shagari was not qualified and totally unprepared for the gigantic task he was called upon to solve is to say the least. He was a very weak president who knew nothing about public administration and lost total control of everything and everybody around him.

Buhari emerged president through a coup detat. Another imposition. It has now being revealed by Richard Osuolale Akinjide, the former Attorney-General of the federation, under Shagari, that the main purpose of the 1983 coup was to prevent a southerner from taking over from Shagari.

Babangida, after acting as the main architects of many coups, finally decided to be at the helms of power himself. A palace coup was hatched while Tunde Idiagbon was away on hajj. Without Idiagbon, Babangida's task became much simpler. Another imposition. Through hook and crook methods, he hung on to power for almost 10 years.

In 1999, Obasanjo, after miraculously escaping Sanni Abacha's gallow was lobbied by Babangida, Theophilus Danjuma and the rest of the northern political elites to be Nigeria's president. They lavishly bankrolled his presidential campaign from the Niger delta loots. Another imposition. Obasanjo, like his predecessors, was also incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt. Like his predecessors, he was completely unprepared for the daunting task that he was called upon to tackle. Therefore, it was not surprising that his reign camouflaged as civilian regime turned out to be disastrous for the country. He terrorised the country for 8 years and without any improvement in the lives of Nigerians. He left Nigerians poorer than they were in 1999.

Yaradua, after 8 unimpressive years as the governor of Katsina state, instead of allowing the poor guy to go into retirement and concentrate on his health, was lured by the ruling party, PDP, into contesting the 2007 presidential election. The fact that he never had any presidential ambition, and was completely unprepared too for the Herculean task of being Nigeria’s president was ignored. Yaradua eventually emerged president in the worst election ever conducted in the history of the country. Another brazen imposition!

However, the most disappointing and saddening aspect of the presidential election was the fact that all of the 3 leading candidates, Yaradua, Atiku and Buhari, were not only from the north but should not had even contested for the presidency under normal circumstances. Atiku, the former Vice President and a product of the Nigerian customs, regarded as the second most corrupt government institution after the army, was openly accused by his boss, Obasanjo, of corruption, and was also indicted by the EFCC of corruption. Buhari, a retired military officer and former military Head of state, who came to power through a coup detat, punishable by death, and notorious for brutality and total disregard for the rule of law including Nigeria's legal system. It's unfortunate that out of a population of 140 million Nigerians, people with these kind of terrible biographies were the leading presidential candidates in the 21st century - almost 50 years after independence. In a normal society, they would not even be allowed to stand for elections, but not in Nigeria.

After a year at the helms of affairs, I can confirm that Yaradua is another incompetent and visionless leader who does not have neither a concrete program nor direction as regards to the development of Nigeria. A leader can be judged by the decisions that he makes or does not make, and the consequence. There is more than enough grounds now to assert boldly that Yaradua is far from being the messiah that will lead us out of the political, military, social and economic crises that the country has been deeply immersed in for decades.

In many developed countries, public administrators contest, or are lobbied to contest for the highest political post in the country after they must have excelled in lower administrative positions, for example, in the capacity of governor. This compels us to enquire about the achievements or performance of Yaradua as governor of Katsina state for 8 good(?) years. In other words, how has the reign of Yaradua in the capacity of the governor of Katsina improved the lives of the indigenes vis-a-vis the indigenes of other states? If you don't mind me asking you a little favour. Before reading on, can you please name just ONE economic or social program successfully implemented by Yaradua in the capacity of Katsina state governor for eight years to justify his contesting for the presidential election talkless of becoming the president of Nigeria? What was the percentage of federal government funds or allocation given to Katsina state compared to other states? How effective was this money used? How many power stations did he construct within those 8 years? How many water dams, to provide water for the indigenes, did he build? How many roads did he construct in Katsina state? How many new schools did he build? What is the ratio or percentage of the indigenes within enrollment and/or secondary school age enrolled in primary schools or continued their education in the secondary schools compared to other states in Nigeria? What percentage of the indigenes within graduating age graduated from Universities within those 8 years compared to other states in Nigeria? How competitive are the graduates of katsina state compared to graduates from other states? How many social and economic programs did Yaradua successfully implement in order to reduce the level of poverty and raise the standard of living in Katsina state? What was the level of poverty in Katsina state compared to other states in Nigeria when Yaradua left office? How many factories did he build? How many jobs did he create for the indigenes of his state? What percentage of the indigenes have access to affordable and reliable health care service? What percentage of the indigenes of Katsina state have regular access to pipe borne water and electricity at the end of his 8 year term as governor? How independent and effective were the democratic institutions when he was governor? How much regard did he have for the rule of law, that he now so much talks about, when he was the governor of Katsina state? What was the level of human and civil rights in the state? How transparent was his government financially and politically? How much has the wealth of Yaradua increased by the time he left office, compared to when he became the governor? How was his wealth acquired?  To what extent was Sharia introduced or implemented in the state then? How transparent was his administration then in general? What was the level of security of lives and properties? How was the overall performance of Yaradua compared to other 35 states?

These questions should be some of the indices or yardstick that should be used not only to access 'objectively' Yaradua's performance as governor, but his qualification to even vye for the presidency or become the president. The answers to these questions are very important because if Yaradua did not perform any magic for the indigenes of Katsina state within those 8 years that he was the governor, it's obvious that he definitely can not perform any magic for 140 million people. It will be very naive of us to expect him to perform miracles for 140 million people within the 3 or 7 years left for him to serve. It will be very naive of us to expect him to fix our police force. It will be very naive of us to expect him to find a lasting, fair and acceptable solution to the crises in the Niger delta. It will be very naive of us to expect him to provide 140 million people with regular water and electricity. It will be very naive of us to expect him to revive our economy. It will be very naive of us to expect him to implement complex economic programs for the whole country. It will be very naive of us to expect him to conduct a very effective foreign policy. It will be very naive of us to expect him to take on the multinationals that has been polluting the Niger delta since oil exploration started. It will be very naive of us to expect him to engage in battles with the multinational oil companies for paying Nigeria peanuts for the previledge to drill oil in the Niger delta. The development of a country does not take place by magic or prayers. The development of a country requires good planning, vision, professionalism, hard work, competence and a team work.

However, what is most disappointing about Yaradua is that for 8 good years as the governor of Katsina state, he was unable to build just a single state of the art hospital that will cater for his ailment! As the president of Nigeria for 12 months, Yaradua still is not capable of building a single medical center to treat himself despite the fact that Nigeria has more than $45 billion in reserve! Such a hospital is not even in the pipe line! Instead of building state of the art hospital, and employing the best of the best of Nigerian doctors to run it, Yaradua prefers to shuttle to Germany in a big Boeing and entrust his life to German doctors!

It's worth noting that more than fifteen thousand Nigerian medical experts operating in the U.S. alone rank not only among the best of the best in the world, but even the most demanding Americans are glad to entrust their lives to them. Even the Arab oil magnates consider it a previledge to be treated by Nigerian doctors. Nigerian medical practitioners are not only held in the highest esteem abroad but have also won uncountable number of international awards. Nevertheless, Yaradua does not consider any of these professionals qualified enough to treat him. He would rather waste billions of dollars of the Niger delta oil money flying to Germany to see German doctors than allow a highly qualified Nigerian doctor examine him. To add salt to injury, Yaradua, through his press secretary, publicly discredited Nigerian medical professionals by publicly announcing that the German doctors claimed that Nigerian doctors made a wrong diagnosis of his ailment. Ironically, to the best of my knowledge, Yaradua relies on these incompetent Nigerian doctors, engineers, lawyers, pharmacists, scientists, scholars, bankers, engineers, consultants, e.t.c, and not German professionals to design and implement his Vision 2020 project. What a president!

According to an analysis just conducted by a Nigerian economist, the money that Yaradua has squandered on shuttling to Germany including his medical fees, lodging of his entourage, e.t.c. is more than enough to build and maintain a state of the art hospital in Nigeria that will cater for him and other highly placed public figures.

But, for a competent leader with vision, must it take the intervention of an economist to understand that it is much cheaper in the short and long run to build a modern hospital that will cater for his ailment in Nigeria than making endless trips to Germany? In addition, a president with vision must understand that for the security and prestige of the country, only Nigerian doctors should be entrusted with his health and life. Try to imagine George Bush flying to Germany to be treated by German doctors. Or, try to imagine even Israeli, South African, Indian, Venezuelan, Iranian, Cuban or Zimbabwean presidents respectively entrusting their health and lives in the hands of foreign doctors irrespective of their qualification. For God's sake, if Yaradua does not understand even these basic things, and is incapable of resolving very trivial problem like building a hospital for himself to treat his 'own' ailment for 9 years in the capacity of governor and president, how do we expect him to solve all the enormous economic, political, social and military problems that Nigeria and Nigerians are facing? Since Yaradua was not prepared to be Nigeria's president, it is not surprising that he is always running to the Germans for treatment; the British to fix his police; Americans to resolve the Niger delta crises; the Chinese to build rails; the Indians to build Petrochemical plants; the Malasians to build houses, the Lebanese to build roads. Yaradua is ready to run to anybody but not Nigerians to build Nigeria. All he tells the foreigners is to just name their price for solving his problem. Since he himself is a mediocre, it's no surprising that he doubts the capability of Nigerians to provide solutions to the surmounting problems facing the country.

It's really very unfortunate that 140 million Nigerians rely on a man who pays a nonchalant attitudes even to his own health to lead them not just out of the wilderness and poverty, but as well place Nigeria among the 20 richest countries in the world in the next 12 years! Isn't this ridiculous?

Making endless trips to Germany for medical treatment is just one of many reasons to buttress my point that Yaradua is another incompetent and visionless leader from the north. Other reasons to prove the incompetence of Yaradua and his predecessors will be presented in details in the coming parts of my article titled "Leadership, decision making, the military, the north and development in Nigeria." Finally, it is worth noting that Segun Osoba, the former governor of Ogun state, was quoted as saying that he simply could not recall Yaradua participating actively in any major discussions during the meetings of all governors, when Yaradua was presented by the PDP as her presidential flag bearer in the election. According to Osoba, Yaradua was always silent and sat aloof in those meetings. Yaradua, without any exaggeration, is Alhaji Shehu Shagari fast forwarded from 1983 to 2007!

2. POPULATION ADVANTAGE OF THE NORTH AND ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NIGERIA.

 The north, with a higher population; at least according to the just concluded census, than the south, will always have an advantage in electing or deciding whom the president of Nigeria will be. The fact that the population north is much higher than the two other major ethnic groups; the Yorubas and Ndigbos, is of strategic advantage in choosing the president.

3. EXPERIENCE IN POLITICS AND MANIPULATION.

The fact that practically all of Nigeria's presidents from independence are from the north is another strategic advantage to ensuring their victory in future presidential elections because they know the political mechanism and structure of the country very well and are better connected to the power brokers or key politicians in the south.

4. TRIBALISM AND POLITICAL CONSERVATISM OF THE NORTH.

Tribalism is another serious impediment that will neither allow a southerner to emerge as the President nor choose a competent leader with vision. Nigeria, since independence has not only failed to transform into a nation, but is even more divided now than in 1960. What this tantamount to is that northerners will always vote for a presidential candidates from the north irrespective of his capability. Without a substantial votes of northerners, the chances of a presidential candidate from the south winning a presidential election is infinitesimal.

The 1979 presidential election is more than enough to support this thesis. Pa Awo and Zik, despite the fact both were obviously much experienced than Shehu Shagari, a former school teacher, nevertheless, emerged the winner in the presidential election. The fact that both Pa Awo and Zik were veteran politicians with excellent track records, and as well played very active roles in gaining independence for Nigeria, was not enough argument for the descendants of Othman Dan Fodio to cast their votes enmasse for either of them. Shagari emerged from no where and won the presidential election. The north would rather have a lame duck than from the north as president than competent southerners like Pa Awo or Zik.

At this juncture, it's worth mentioning that the fact that Moshood Abiola emerged the winner of the June 12, 1992 presidential election against an opponent from the north was more of an exception than the norm. In statistics, we refer to such event as 'outliers.' Outliers in statistics is a situation influenced by extremely large or small values that may 'distort' the representative nature of the mean. Outliers are data or figures that seriously deviate from a set of data or figures within the same range or very small variance from the mean. Outliers could be compared to the 'Gaussian noise' in a communications transmission system that causes signal fluctuation or distortion. Therefore, in order to get a 'noise free' signal from the transmitter to the receiver, you have to pass it through a digital modulator which in this case is like a filter that separates the noise from the original signal that you want to transmit. Therefore, in statistical analysis, outliers are always ignored in order to calculate the average correctly and avoid significant deviation from the mean.

Nevertheless, if we are to analyse Abiola's victory over Tofa 'thoroughly,' we will come to the conclusion that in actual fact, his victory was after all neither accidental nor a miracle. With handsight, Abiola's victory could be explained. Some of the factors that led to his victory included the following:

a. Abiola's wealth and very strong personality. Without any exaggeration, Abiola was not only a very wealthy business man, but was also a very strong personality in all sense of the word. He had an unusual charisma. He was a philanthropist who spent a substantial part of his wealth on on charity throughout the country, including the north. This philanthropic activities warmed him to the hearts of millions of Nigerians.

b. Religion and strong connection with the north. The fact that Abiola was a muslim played a major role in getting the votes of northerners. in addition, he had wined, dined and cut deals with the most powerful of the northern elites and power brokers - both civilians and retired military officers. Abiola was so popular in the north to the extent that he was honoured with different chieftancy titles by the northern monarchs.

c. Close relationship with Babangida. Abiola's personal and business relationships with Babangida, who was then the head of state, was another major factor that opened the hearts of the northerners to him. Many northerners thought that since Abiola was Babangida's buddy, they had nothing to worry about. They believed that Abiola would always protect the interest of the north.

d. The national reach of SDP. The Social Democratic Party (SDP), that Abiola was the presidential flag bearer, was formed on the platform of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Most of its founders and financiers were staunch members of the defunct NPN with strong political connection nation wide. This automatically gave SDP a national reach, which undoubtedly is a very big advantage.

e. The choice of Kingibe as running mate. With Kingibe, a northerner, beside Abiola, northern voters were even more assured that Abiola would not go against their interests. Kingibe, together with other northerners did their own part of the campaigning. If Abiola had chosen a southerner as his running mate, he would have certainly lost the election to Tofa.

f. Abiola's connection in Nigeria. Abiola was a veteran of Nigerian politics. He knew the in and out. He knew all the movers and shakers of Nigerian politics. This factor contributed immensely into emerging as the flag bearer of SDP in a fierce contest. Emerging as the presidential candidate of such a formidable party was itself at least 40% guarantee of victory against Tofa.

g. Popularity in Yorubaland. Abiola's strong popularity among his kinsmen, the Yorubas, was another equally important factor that led to his victory. Without this strong home base, it would have been difficult for Abiola to defeat a northern opponent.

h. Limited popularity of Tofa. Tofa, compared to Abiola was not widely known, he was like a novice. He didn't have the kind of connection that Abiola had. He lacked the charisma that personality that Abiola had. In addition, his base was limited mainly to the north. He also didn't have a strong appeal in the south in general. Even the fact that his running mate was from the south east was not enough to get the votes of the Ndigbos en masse. His running mate was not that popular in the south. Moreover, the Ndigbos saw the post of Vice President as more of decoration than real power. This gave Abiola a strong advantage.

i. Lack of resources and experience. Tofa's party did not hav e enough resources and experience to compete with Abiola's party, the SDP.

All the above factors together contributed immensely and equally to the emergence of Abiola as the winner of the June 12, 1992 presidential election. Having said this, nevertheless, it is worth noting that Abiola's case was 'unique' and was more of an 'exception' than the norm. The probability of Nigeria having another Abiola at least in the next 50 years, with all the above mentioned factors in his favour, is practically equal to zero. The north, by denying Abiola the presidency, undoubtedly, shot themselves in the leg.

AHMED ABIOLA IS NOT ABIOLA, AND CAN NEVER BE THE PRESIDENT OF NIGERIA.

Today, the only Yoruba politician with the best chance of contesting against a northern candidate is former governor of Lagos state, Ahmed Tinubu. Tinubu, in a way, could be compared to Abiola. Like abiola, he is a muslim. like Abiola, he's charismatic. Like Abiola, he has a very strong personality. Like Abiola, he is a politician of national repute. Like Abiola, he is a good orator. Like Abiola, he is defiant. Like Abiola, he is one of the key leaders of a national party. Like Abiola, he has an impressive following among his kinsmen, the Yorubas. Like Abiola, he is wealthy. Like Abiola, he is well known in the north. Unfortunately, all these will not be enough to give Tinubu a shot at the presidency against a northern opponent in the future.

Judging by Tinubu's moves, it's obvious that he has his eyes set at the highest post in the country. He sees himself in the shoes of Abiola come some day. Unfortunately, with all respect to Tinubu, he is not Abiola, and his dream of becoming Nigeria's president in the nearest future is more of an illusion than reality. There are many factors that will make the realisation of Tinubu's political ambition unattainable. They include:

a. Home base. Tinubu, in order to even have a chance to be considered as a serious presidential candidate must have a strong home base. and in order to achieve this, he must emerge as the 'undisputable' leader of the Yorubas. One of Obasanjo's major achievement as president of Nigeria was undoubtedly his division of the Yorubas. Obasanjo realised that his political survival and relevance depended on dividing the Yorubas. He was aware of the fact that a united and enlightened Yoruba nation that speaks with one voice is a serious threat to his authority and reelection in 2003. Therefore, he spared no resources and efforts in dividing the Yorubas into different warring political blocks. Today, different Yoruba political and social groups are laying claim to the dealership of the Yorubas, a post that has been vacant since the demise of Pa awolowo, the undisputed leader of the Yorubas. Becoming the only and undisputable leader of the Yorubas is the first, major and most difficult hurdle that Tinubu must cross. It is a very serious obstacle because Tinubu has formidable opponents who are also interested in Papa awo's throne. In addition, to the best of my knowledge, there is a very strong opposition to the emergence of Tinubu as successor to Papa Awo, in the inner Yoruba territories. What makes Tinubu's task even more difficult is the fact that his popularity is limited mainly to Lagos. Moreover, Yoruba leaders are first chosen by their intellectuals, scholars and political elites before being sent to the people for approval.

b. The Atiku factor. Tinubu's political flirting with Atiku, in my opinion, has become sort of a dilemma for him. Since it's now obvious that Atiku's presidential ambition is over and unattainable. But if Tinubu eventually decides to run for the presidency, he will definitely need the support of Atiku, a northerner, to deliver the votes of the north for him. On the other hand, Atiku has become a 'political liability' for Tinubu. Atiku had to go to court to get his name on the ballot box after being initially prevented by the National Electoral Committee, acting on corruption allegation both from the EFCC and his former boss, Segun Obasanjo. Atiku finally lost his political base after the gubernatorial candidate from his party lost by a wide margin to PDP's candidate at the just concluded gubernatorial election in his state, Adamawa. This in essence means that politically Atiku is dead, and is a political liability to Tinubu. Atiku's influence or authority is no more enough to generate the necessary amount of votes Tinubu will need to guarantee his victory. But if Tinubu abandons Atiku completely, he risks loosing even the little votes the north might cast for him. This where the dilemma is for Tinubu.

c. Tinubu's party, does not have enough resources to compete at par with the ruling party, the PDP.

d. Limited appeal and religious factor. Tinubu's appeal in the south east and south south is very low. In addition, the fact that he is a muslim is another big minus in these regions.

e. Choice of running mate. The choice of a running mate is going to be another dilemma and obstacle for Tinubu. If he chooses a running mate from the south east or south south, he automatically annihilates northern votes. His appeal or chances will be much lower there. If he chooses a northerner, he automatically annihilates large number of voters from the south east and south south respectively. Therefore, if Tinubu emerges as the presidential flag bearer of his party, it will be practically impossible for him to defeat a northern presidential candidate, especially from the PDP, irrespective whom he (the PDP candidate) chooses as his running mate.

The above analysis of Tinubu's possible presidential ambition, in actual fact, is a classic illustration of why it will be very difficult or impossible for a southerner to even have a chance of being a serious contender in any presidential election in the nearest future. The chances of Utomi or any other presidential aspirant from the south east or south south are even much lesser compared to that of Tinubu. Thus, based on this analysis, the 'highest' political post attainable to Tinubu or any other southern politician, is the decorative and powerless post of Vice President under an incompetent northern president; like Jonathan Goodluck under Yaradua.

5. ROTATION OF PRESIDENCY.

 The rotation system which Nigeria officially or unofficially presently operates, automatically means that power will remain in the north at least for another 23 years (till 2031)! If nothing unexpected does not happen (force majeur), it's obvious that Yaradua will be reelected in 2011 through hook or crook method. After Yaradua must have served his two full terms in 2015, when a new presidential election is also supposed to be held, the north will definitely come up with totally new arguments like Katsina state, where Yaradua hails from, is just 'one' out of the three regions in the north, therefore, the two other regions are yet to serve their own 16 years. Or they may even say that rotation is bad for the development of the country, and that the race to Aso rock should be opened to all.

Some people might find or consider this reasoning ridiculous or impossible. However, for a start, I want to remind these doubting Thomases, that Buhari contested against Obasanjo in the 2003 presidential election. But Obasanjo was able to defeat Buhari through different hook and crook methods. If we are to judge by how Yaradua emerged as the presidential flag bearer of his party and his eventual victory in the election that was regarded as the worst ever conducted in the history of Nigeria, then we can not be 100% sure that Obasanjo actually defeated Buhari in a free and fair election in 2003.

After Obasanjo's Third Term Agenda (TTA) was crushed, and the north sensed that Obasanjo was about to choose an Ndigbo or a south southerner as his party's presidential flag bearer and his eventual successor, the whole of the north, irrespective of political affiliation, united together and started talking about a secret agreement reached in the PDP in 1999 about rotation of the post of the president between the north and the south. Before you could even say 'Baba,' a strong rotation campaign was set in motion by the north throughout the country. The northern political elite realised that that was the only argument they could use in order to bring the presidential crown, that was 'temporarily released' to the south, back to the north, where it really belongs. The north was not fazed with the fact that the Ndigbos, the Ijaws, the Ibibios and other ethnic groups in the south south have never produced the president of Nigeria before. The Yorubas, Ndigbo, Ijaws, Ibibios and other ethnic groups in the south south were grouped together as the south and one region.

The point that I want to make here is that if the north was successful in its rotation campaign to return power to the north when a retired Yoruba general was in power, despite the fact that neither the Ndigbos nor the south south have never been at the helms of affairs for once in a democratic setting, what makes us think that the north will not be successful in manipulating us, or have their way again with another demogogic argument come 2015 in order to retain power, moreover, when their kinsman, Yaradua will be in power?

6. THE DOMINATION OF THE PDP BY THE NORTH.

One of obasanjo's major achievements, apart from dividing the Yorubas into different warring political blocks, was his success in kicking out practically all the founding members and financiers of PDP, who did not see eye with him on different political and economic issues, or that he considered as threat to his authority and political survival. After Obasanjo's handing over of power and the fast erosion of his political authority and status, a large power vacuum was created, and was quickly filled up mainly by northerners who are loyal to Yaradua. Thus, today, the PDP is firmly in the hands of the north. They have inherited all the resources of the party/ This, undoubtedly, gives them another very important and strategic advantage in future presidential elections.

7. FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 The huge amount of financial resources at the disposal of northern political elites, especially the retired military officers, is equally a big advantage to endure reelection of northerners in future presidential elections. As is well known, election, and politics in general needs a lot of financial resources. Moreover, in Nigeria, unlike in the US, where there is no limit or control on the amount that could be spent on elections, coupled with very high rate of poverty, this has created unlimited opportunities to buy the votes of impoverished Nigerians. After all, he who pays the piper dictates the tune. Northern politicians, especially retired military officers, have stolen more than enough money to influence the outcome of presidential elections in their favour, at least for the next 25 years/

8. OBASANJO FACTOR.

 After the handing over of power to Yaradua by Obasanjo and the corruption and moral conduct scandals that immediately accompanied him, his authority and political status has diminished completely. Therefore, Obasanjo is neither in the position of install a southerner as the president nor capable of preventing a northerner from emerging the winner in future elections. He can never play the role of a kingmaker.

9. THE CRISES IN THE NIGER DELTA.

With the tension in the Niger delta mounting, the last thing the north will do is to hand over power to a southerner. In fact, there are many secret discussions already going on now in the north on how to prevent Jonathan Goodluck from taking over from Yaradua in case anything happens to Yaradua which makes it impossible for him to continue ruling the country. The north is even considering staging another coup detat if the need calls for it just to prevent power from going back to the south. In addition, the north political elite understand how important the Niger delta oil is to their survival. The descendants of Othman Dan Fodio are very much aware of the fact that without the Niger delta oil, they are living dead. They understand that without the Niger delta oil, there will be billions of dollars for them to steal again. Therefore, they will do everything possible and impossible to keep power in the north.

10. QUOTA SYSTEM AND COMPOSITION OF NORTHERN POLITICAL ELITES.

The northern political elites are made up of two major groups: incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt civilians and retired military officers. The quota system, which has been in operation in Nigeria for decades, has produced a large number of half-baked northern graduates, including northern elite civilian politicians. Most of these people did not go through the rigorous competitions like southerners, in order to gain admission into universities and secure jobs. A large amount of them got admissions into the universities and were employed through quota system. Places were just reserved for them in the universities, ministries, public companies, foreign missions, radio and TV stations, etc. These mediocres have penetrated very deep into all levels of public posts including senators, members of House of representatives, governors, ambassadors, diplomats, ministers, directors of public companies, advisers, NTA news casters, e.t.c. This obviously explains the reason why northerners are not competitive with their southern counterparts in all spheres of professional human endeavour: music, law, academics, medicine, banking, engineering, sports, entertainment, writing, e.t.c.

The second group which the northern political elites is made up is the retired military officers. These are people who have no democratic values, and are only used to giving and receiving orders throughout their adult and service years. These are people who have never run any private company successfully before. These are people who made millions and billions of dollars from embezzlement and inflated contracts. These are people who shot their way into power.  These are people who imposed themselves on us for a greater part of 48 years of independence. These are people who have oppressed, suppressed and intimidated millions of Nigerians. These are the people who have sent millions of Nigerians into their early graves.

These are people who believe that it's their birth right to rule Nigeria forever. These people are the products of the Nigerian army, the most incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt government institution in Nigeria. These are the people who have taken part in different coup detats. These are people who have not gone through the necessary political, academic, civil and psychological transformation in order to operate effectively in a democratic setting. These people are neither intellectuals nor liberals. These are the people who don't believe in democracy and the rule of law. These are the people who have no regards for human and civil rights. These are the people who believe that they are above the laws of the land. These are the people who believe in using only brutal force to solve all problems. These are the people who ruined our economy. These are the people that turned Nigeria into a country whose citizens live on less than $1 in a day, despite the abundance of human and mineral resources. These are the people who have denied us basic infrastructures like pipe borne water and electricity for almost 50 years. These are the people who spent hundreds of billions of dollars of the Niger delta oil m oney on building a new capital from scratch in the north, while the bonafide owners live in abject poverty and more than 90% of Nigerians do not have regular access to water and electricity, even till the time of writing.

These are the people who refused to hand over power to Moshood Abiola, a Yoruba man, in a free and fair election which was organised by them. These are the people that eventually murdered Abiola but lied to us that he died of heart attack. These are the people that imposed Obasanjo on us despite the fact that the Yorubas preferred Olu Falae, a much better candidate. These are the people, according to Richard Osuolale Akinjide, the former Attorney-General of the federation under Shagari, who purposely overthrew Shagari in 1983 in order to prevent a southerner from taking over from him. These are the people who built a refinery in Kaduna, when the oil wells are in the Niger delta, an extreme end of the country. These are the people who murdered more than 3 million Ndigbos, Ibibios, Ijaws, Efiks and other ethnic groups in the south south because they just wanted to be on their own.

These are the people who blew up Dele Giwa, Nigeria's foremost journalist, in 1983, in order to prevent him from revealing some classified information that might implicate them for drug trafficking. These are the people who hanged Ken Saro-Wiwa for launching a campaign against the multinational oil companies to put a stop to the pollution of his peoples' land, and for daring to stop them (the north) from stealing the oil of his people in the name of building a fake and non-existing One Nigeria. With the exception of Sanni Abacha, practically all these people are still very much around, alive and kicking. These are the people that will either be kingmakers or run for all the presidential elections that will be held in the next 25 years and beyond. These people will go to any length to retain power in the north. These people will use any hook or crook method including staging another military coup, if the need calls for it, to ensure that power does not go back to the south. I am afraid to say that when it comes to power games, we are no match for these people because it is the only game that they know very well and are perfect in. They are much better than us in the power game not because they are more intelligent but because the British handed power to them and positioned them militarily above us. They have been able to maintain this status quo for almost 50 years.

CONCLUSION.

The following conclusion can be correctly drawn from the above analysis:

A. A southerner can never be the president of Nigeria, at least in the next 25 years. After the north must have finished ruling for another 25 years, they will give it to the south to 'smell' through a puppet southerner, just 4 years.

B. Since only the north is capable of producing the president at least in the next 25 years, then, we have no choice but to elect over and over incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt northern civilians and retired military officers as presidents.

C. Since none of the northern presidents that will be chosen has the brains to lead Nigeria successfully, most especially, out of the serious political and economic crises, it's always going to be one step forward, 5 steps backward;

D. Since we are going to be represented at all levels by mediocre northerners, who are mainly products of quota system, and not by the best of the best among us, our human resources can never be utilised to the maximum. In addition, Nigeria can never be competitive viz a viz other countries. This, in essence, means that the economy will grow slowly, if at all it grows.

E. With political power tightly in the hands of the north, they will automatically continue to have 'unlimited and free' access to to the vast resources in the south.

F. The north will continue to squander hundreds of billions of dollars of the south on white elephant projects like Abuja.

G. The north will continue to steal and embezzle billions of dollars of the south without any repercussion.

H. Multinational oil companies will continue to pay Nigeria peanuts for the previledge to drill oil in the Niger delta.

I. Multinational oil companies will continue to pollute the Niger delta without any repercussion.

J. Mutlinational oil companies will continue employing and paying exorbitant salaries to half-baked British, American, Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, Malasian, Philliphine, Lebanese and other foreign workers despite the fact that there are better qualified Nigerians, and the rate of unemployment in the country is high.

K. The north will continue awarding contracts to Indian, Lebanese, Israeli, Chinese, Lebanese and other foreign countries.

L. The north will continue paying millions of dollars in consultancy fees to mediocre foreign consultants despite the fact that there are Nigerians who are better qualified and could do a better job for a lesser amount.

M. We will continue to grope in the dark.

The above analysis and conclusion, take it or leave it, is the bitter truth as regards to the true state of things in Nigeria today and in the future. This is the political reality and implication of the 'One Nigeria' project that the north is desperate to sell to us. If you are expecting a miracle, then I must tell you that you will have to wait till death comes calling. Nigeria is NEVER going to have a competent leader with vision! Fela, all his life fought these people. What about our Prof. Soyinka? He has been fighting these people for more than 50 years. Has anything changed? It's a complete waste of time waiting for a leader when it's obvious that there is not going to be any in the nearest 25 years, at least.

Now, please let me ask you again. Is this the Nigeria of your dream? Is this the Nigeria that you want your ethnic group to be a part of? Don't you think that it would have been much better if you could have your own country, without the north, where you will be represented by the best of the best at all levels, from the office clerks to the president, Try to imagine a presidential election without Yaradua, Atiku, Babangida, Buhari and other incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt northern civilians and retired military officers who have donated Nigeria's political scene. Try to imagine a presidential election in which Patrick Utomi, Ahmed Tinubu and Dora Akunyili are the leading presidential candidates. That alone, is worth living and dying for. Don't you think that it's worth breaking up Nigeria in order to have Prof. Dora Akunyili the president of a new country, completely free from Babangida, Danjuma, Gowon, Atiku, Buhari and the whole of the north in general?

Personally, in a presidential election where Tinubu, Utomi and Akunyili are the leading candidates, I would have loved to vote for Prof. Dura Akunyili with all my fingers, toes, hands, legs, head, heart and the whole body simply because I strongly believe that she is the most qualified person to be the president of Nigeria today. Unfortunately, if only wishes were horses. The bitter truth is that people like Prof. Akunyili will NEVER be allowed to be president of Nigeria neither by the north nor by the PDP, despite her outstanding and 'unprecedented' performance, and the fact that she is a member of the party. Even if she wants to contest on her own, there are just too many insurmountable obstacles before her - from the analysis that has just been made above. Thev 2007 election in which Prof. Patrick Utomi, who, undoubtedly, was the most qualified among all the candidates that took part , is more than enough evidence to support this claim. No Constitution amendment can prevent incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt northerners - both civilians and retired military officers, from contesting elections. Therefore, if you are dreaming of a presidential election in your life time where Utomi, Tinubu and Akunyili will be the only leading candidates, then, you need to wake up from your slumber because it's a dream that will NEVER come true, neither in the present nor future Nigeria. Real leaders will never emerge in Nigeria. Incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt northern presidents will continue to impose themselves, or be imposed on us!

The ONLY feasible way of having Prof. Dora Akunyili the president in a hot election that will be contested by Tinubu and Prof. Patrick Utomi is by breaking up Nigeria now. There is just no other way out!

TO BE CONTINUED...