It is respectfully submitted that the election of General Olusegun Obasanjo a Southern Christian with support mainly from the north and the east has negated some of our reasons for calling for a sovereign national conference. Power has shifted from north to south although we concede that the threat of secession by the south over annulment of June 12, 1993 election contributed largely to making the power shift a reality. It confirms that our 1979 vision of one united indivisible Nigeria is still alive more so since Obasanjo’s own tribe the Yorubas rejected him.

 

By that choice (at least by those who voted for him) we have opted for unity instead of disunity. His candidature (we knew) represented the vision of one Nigeria which he has devoted the major part of his life fashioning and defending. It is just too naïve and ridiculous to expect him to now preside over the dismemberment of Nigeria. The PDP itself have shown that as a party no price is too high to be paid for the corporate existence of Nigeria hence they sought out Obasanjo’s candidacy even though many prominent politicians within the party also desired the office and contested many times before.

 

It cannot be described as tribal party because the pattern of voting at the elections shows clearly that the party’s support-base covers the entire country. It omits sovereign national conference from its program and neither does it promise confederation yet the Ibos and the Southern minorities voted massively for it. It now controls the National Assembly; how then can we expect its leaders in and out of govt. to champion those issues? The protagonists of sovereign national conference have a Herculean task of altering by persuasion or otherwise the vision of Nigeria held by the leaders of the dominant party.

 

The ideas of “Sovereign” in the conference is not going to be acceptable to either the Presidency or the National Assembly because you cannot have two sovereign entities at the same time and common sense dictates that the amplitude of the law and constitution making powers of the National Assembly is wide enough to cover all issues in contention. In fact all the issues in contention i.e. confederalism, Devolution of powers, ownership of mineral resources can be tackled either through legislation or power politics.

 

The idea of confederation was mooted at the Aburi Conference at the point of Ibo secession in 1966 and was roundly rejected. It was robustly discussed at the Constituent Assembly in 1978 and rejected. It is laden with inherent structural difficulties and precedents are not readily available either in Africa or elsewhere (apart from Switzerland). For now we are yet to be told into how many Confederal Regions Nigeria will be broken.

 

The problem of minorities (north and south) currently resolved through creation of states is likely to resurface in any proposed confederal arrangement. It is even doubtful if a state like Ekiti State will willingly substitute its new Abacha-found statehood to any other arrangement. Under the Confederal System, a weak center is proposed whose power is limited to currency, defence and external affairs. How does this augur well for our economic and social development as a nation? Does the current performance of our Governors indicate any lessons for the future being proposed?

 

The other touchy issue raised to justify the call for sovereign national conference is mineral resources. Right now God has delivered the mineral producing areas from injustice and oppression by the majority tribes under cov

er of the Nigerian military. The treatment of the mineral producing areas in the matter of revenue allocation ought to (and is being) revisited by the current Federal Government. Speaking for myself any area from which any natural resource is source should be entitled at least to fifty percent.

 

The motive of those who suggest that each area should retain the entire 100% of mineral produced by it (and only pay tax to the federal government) is suspect. You will only end up having nations within the nation due to resultant economic imbalance. What has worked elsewhere may not address successfully the Nigerian situation. Note also that every area of Nigeria is favoured in this regard and we may soon shift from petroleum to solid minerals for about 80% of our national revenue in the foreseeable future.

 

Finally the protagonists of SNC have resuscitated the tribe issue.

 

Their stance is that our recent experience demonstrates beyond al doubts that we are a nation of incompatible tribes and ethic nations. Are we really incompatible? Is it really a mistake that British Colonialists amalgamated the north and south in 1914? Is there any hope for the minorities under the present arrangement? The diversity of tribes and nationalities in Nigeria is a point of strength rather than a weakness. No convincing evidence has been shown to support the assertion of incompatibility.

 

We have been interacting socially since the British brought us together prior to independence in 1960. This argument of incompatibility is faulted by the stance of our past leaders most of whom were believers in one Nigeria. The vision of Nnamdi Azikwe, Obafemi Awolowo and Ahmadu Bello was that of one Nigeria, having been premier of western region it was the ambition of Obafemi Awolowo to rule the Nigerian nation. M. K. O Abiola (like Awolowo) before him had a chance to lead to lead the Yoruba nation into secession but he never succumbed to the temptation.

 

The Ibos have suffered the most injustice (of the three major tribes of Nigeria) yet their current leaders have expressed unshaken confidence in the unity and corporate existence of Nigeria opting to constitutionally redress past injustices. In fact the Igbos of Nigeria will be favorably adjudged by posterity for their massive 1999 nationalistic votes that brought President Olusegun Obasanjo to power despite opposition from his Yoruba tribesmen’s then leadership. The Hausa/Fulani i.e. North have dominated power almost all the time since 1960 Independence from Britain hence, they are not heard to complain. Today a Yoruba man is in power as President; it is doubtful if any of the other tribes can take the current clamor of a few outspoken Yoruba radicals for re-structuring and sovereign national conference serious.

 

As far as the other tribes and nationalities are concerned the Hausas have passed the baton to the Yorubas (but many forget that the Yorubas paid dearly to have that baton). With publication of the report of the Federal Character Commission on the composition of the officials Obasanjo’s federal government we are still waiting for the SNC protagonists’ own definition of the term “re-structuring”. We have not reached “eldorado”  but it cannot be fairly asserted that the same group that dominated Nigeria under Sanni Abacha and Ibrahim Babangida are still ruling. 

 

What many SNC protagonists actually desire is the dismemberment of Nigeria i.e. let us meet and agree to part. How practicable is this? What is the guarantee that if the SNC is convened the consensus is going to be part rather than to stay together? If a section wants to part, can it do so against the wishes or consent of the others? Can we by consensus at the SNC achieve what Gideon Orkar sought to achieve by way of coup d’etat i.e. the creation of the Republic of Southern Nigeria.